December 9, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Drew Dober | Olivier Aubin-Mercier |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 986 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +28 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (8 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Olivier Aubin-Mercier |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 988 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Olivier Aubin-Mercier |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:57 | 2:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 087 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +63 |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:57, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Drew Dober was submitted.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Olivier Aubin-Mercier |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 71 | 53 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 30 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 063 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Drew Dober controlled the striking through superior accuracy (33.8% vs 50.9%), 1 knockdown. However, since Drew Dober lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Olivier Aubin-Mercier's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Olivier Aubin-Mercier |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:12 | 1:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 090 | 1 234 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged out Drew Dober on the ground with 1:33 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Olivier Aubin-Mercier |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 92 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 010 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +30 |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Olivier Aubin-Mercier capitalized on this activity level, while Drew Dober's 92-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Olivier Aubin-Mercier |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 997 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Drew Dober is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Olivier Aubin-Mercier |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 988 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

