July 29, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Drew Dober | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 16 | -16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 153 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Drew Dober's 16-fight experience advantage (19 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Drew Dober for the expected result. Had Rafael Alves pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 088 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:30 | 1:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 391 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -14 |
Drew Dober gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 62 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 151 | 68 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 46 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 359 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Drew Dober controlled the striking exchanges with 62 vs 37 significant strikes, 41.1% vs 54.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Drew Dober capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:04 | 2:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 111 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Drew Dober landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 259 |
| Activity ELO | 1 193 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -13 |
Drew Dober demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Drew Dober capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Alves's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 123 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -15 |
Drew Dober extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Alves is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 088 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

