Drew Dober vs Rafael Alves

July 29, 2022

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1188
(+21)
Drew Dober
Winner: Drew Dober
KO/TKO
Round 3 • 1:30

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Drew Dober+21
Rafael Alves-18
1007
(-18)
Rafael Alves

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Drew Dober: +23Rafael Alves: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricDrew DoberRafael Alves
Total UFC Fights193
Experience Gap16-16
Experience ELO1 1531 009
ELO Change+23-23
💡

What Happened

Drew Dober's 16-fight experience advantage (19 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Drew Dober for the expected result. Had Rafael Alves pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Drew Dober: +17Rafael Alves: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricDrew DoberRafael Alves
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 088989
ELO Change+17-17
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Drew Dober: +28Rafael Alves: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricDrew DoberRafael Alves
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round33
Time of Finish1:301:30
Win Type ELO1 3911 070
ELO Change+28-14
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What Happened

Drew Dober gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Drew Dober: +28Rafael Alves: -28

Performance Statistics

MetricDrew DoberRafael Alves
Significant Strikes Landed6237
Significant Strikes Attempted15168
Total Strikes Landed6246
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 3591 000
ELO Change+28-28
💡

What Happened

Drew Dober controlled the striking exchanges with 62 vs 37 significant strikes, 41.1% vs 54.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Drew Dober capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Drew Dober: +16Rafael Alves: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricDrew DoberRafael Alves
Takedowns Landed01
Takedowns Attempted03
Ground Control Time0:042:21
Ground Strikes Landed25
Ground ELO1 111990
ELO Change+16-16
💡

What Happened

Drew Dober landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Drew Dober: +26Rafael Alves: -13

Performance Statistics

MetricDrew DoberRafael Alves
Days Since Last Fight140259
Activity ELO1 1931 018
ELO Change+26-13
💡

What Happened

Drew Dober demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Drew Dober capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Alves's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Drew Dober: +18Rafael Alves: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricDrew DoberRafael Alves
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 123994
ELO Change+18-15
💡

What Happened

Drew Dober extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Alves is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Drew Dober: +17Rafael Alves: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricDrew DoberRafael Alves
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 088989
ELO Change+17-17
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.