January 1, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Drew Dober | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Drew Dober's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Drew Dober for the expected result. Had Scott Holtzman pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 038 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Drew Dober earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 88 | 69 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 63 | 79 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 974 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Scott Holtzman controlled the striking through superior volume (79 vs 63 total strikes), superior accuracy (55.1% vs 40.9%). However, since Scott Holtzman lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Drew Dober's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 14 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:15 | 3:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 1 084 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Drew Dober controlled Scott Holtzman on the ground with 5 vs 2 takedowns, 5:15 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 001 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -24 |
Drew Dober demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Drew Dober capitalized on this activity level, while Scott Holtzman's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 990 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -25 |
Drew Dober started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Scott Holtzman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 985 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

