March 11, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Drew Dober | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 18 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 15 | -15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 130 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Drew Dober's 15-fight experience advantage (18 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Drew Dober for the expected result. Had Terrance McKinney pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 071 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:17 | 3:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 363 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | +67 | -31 |
Drew Dober earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:17, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 61 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 331 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -64 |
Terrance McKinney controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (36 vs 17), superior accuracy (59.0% vs 45.9%), 1 knockdown. However, since Terrance McKinney lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Drew Dober's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:24 | 1:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 16 |
| Ground ELO | 1 095 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Drew Dober landed 1 knockdown followed by 9 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 274 | 14 |
| Activity ELO | 1 167 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Drew Dober demonstrated standard activity with 274 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Drew Dober capitalized on this activity level, while Terrance McKinney's 14-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 105 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Drew Dober started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Terrance McKinney is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 071 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

