April 4, 2007
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 040 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Drew Fickett's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Drew Fickett for the expected result. Had Keita Nakamura pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 025 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 130 | 928 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Drew Fickett earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 79 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 174 | 88 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 132 | 49 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 059 | 931 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Drew Fickett dominated the striking exchanges with 132 vs 49 total strikes, 79 vs 32 significant strikes, 45.4% vs 36.4% accuracy. Drew Fickett capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:44 | 3:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 29 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 099 | 841 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Drew Fickett controlled Keita Nakamura on the ground with 2 takedowns, 6:44 of control time, 29 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 113 | 113 |
| Activity ELO | 1 144 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -13 |
Drew Fickett demonstrated solid activity levels with 113 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Drew Fickett capitalized on this activity level, while Keita Nakamura's 113-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 036 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Drew Fickett started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Keita Nakamura is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 025 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

