February 4, 2005
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 972 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Nick Diaz's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nick Diaz for the expected result. Had Drew Fickett pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:40 | 4:40 |
| Win Type ELO | 975 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +53 |
Nick Diaz earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:40, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 28 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 136 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 921 | 1 205 |
| ELO Change | -79 | +79 |
Nick Diaz dominated the striking exchanges with 136 vs 4 total strikes, 13 vs 3 significant strikes, 46.4% vs 37.5% accuracy. Nick Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:41 | 2:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 961 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Nick Diaz edged out Drew Fickett on the ground with 2:26 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +33 |
Nick Diaz demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nick Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Drew Fickett's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Nick Diaz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Drew Fickett is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Drew Fickett | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.