October 24, 2008
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Drew McFedries | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 943 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (7 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Drew McFedries | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Drew McFedries | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:18 | 1:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 068 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +70 |
Thales Leites earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:18, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Drew McFedries | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 046 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 1 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Drew McFedries | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 959 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Thales Leites controlled Drew McFedries on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:03 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Drew McFedries | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 38 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 025 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +29 |
Thales Leites demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thales Leites capitalized on this activity level, while Drew McFedries's 38-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Drew McFedries | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 986 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +30 |
Thales Leites continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Drew McFedries's now at 0.
| Metric | Drew McFedries | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.