January 1, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 068 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Jim Miller's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jim Miller for the expected result. Had Duane Ludwig pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 023 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:31 | 2:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 148 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +75 |
Jim Miller earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:31, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 065 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | -70 | +70 |
Jim Miller controlled the striking exchanges with 26.1% vs 7.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jim Miller capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:21 | 0:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 010 | 1 341 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Jim Miller dominated Duane Ludwig on the ground with 0:15 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 447 | 106 |
| Activity ELO | 1 029 | 1 232 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +30 |
Jim Miller demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jim Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Duane Ludwig's 1447-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 031 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +25 |
Jim Miller extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Duane Ludwig is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.