January 19, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Josh Neer |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 024 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Josh Neer's 5-fight experience advantage (12 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Josh Neer for the expected result. Had Duane Ludwig pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Josh Neer |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Josh Neer |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:04 | 3:04 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 102 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +84 |
Josh Neer earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:04, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Josh Neer |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 46 | 20 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 046 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Duane Ludwig controlled the striking through superior volume (30 vs 6 total strikes), significant strike advantage (24 vs 5), superior accuracy (52.2% vs 25.0%). However, since Duane Ludwig lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Josh Neer's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Josh Neer |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:10 | 1:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 010 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Josh Neer controlled Duane Ludwig on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:09 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Josh Neer |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 160 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 043 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +51 |
Josh Neer demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Josh Neer capitalized on this activity level, while Duane Ludwig's 160-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Josh Neer |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 035 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +29 |
Josh Neer extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Duane Ludwig is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Duane Ludwig | Josh Neer |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.