February 29, 2008
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 042 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Josh Koscheck's 5-fight experience advantage (10 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Josh Koscheck for the expected result. Had Dustin Hazelett pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 025 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:24 | 1:24 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 111 | 1 320 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +56 |
Josh Koscheck gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 59 | 59 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 24 | 25 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 009 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Josh Koscheck controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Josh Koscheck capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 077 | 1 303 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Josh Koscheck landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 165 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 107 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +16 |
Josh Koscheck demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Josh Koscheck capitalized on this activity level, while Dustin Hazelett's 165-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 038 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +18 |
Josh Koscheck started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dustin Hazelett is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 025 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.