June 15, 2007
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Stevie Lynch |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 032 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Dustin Hazelett's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Hazelett for the expected result. Had Stevie Lynch pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Stevie Lynch |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 023 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Stevie Lynch |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:50 | 2:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 082 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +71 | -41 |
Dustin Hazelett earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:50, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Stevie Lynch |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 28 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 017 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Dustin Hazelett edged the striking exchanges with 20 vs 7 significant strikes, 58.8% vs 25.0% accuracy. Dustin Hazelett capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Stevie Lynch |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:17 | 0:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 054 | 874 |
| ELO Change | +126 | -126 |
Dustin Hazelett dominated Stevie Lynch on the ground with 0:17 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Stevie Lynch |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 076 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -19 |
Dustin Hazelett demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dustin Hazelett capitalized on this activity level, while Stevie Lynch's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Stevie Lynch |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 029 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Dustin Hazelett extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Stevie Lynch is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Stevie Lynch |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

