October 9, 2006
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 966 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Tony DeSouza's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tony DeSouza for the expected result. Had Dustin Hazelett pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:59 | 3:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 965 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +58 |
Tony DeSouza earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:59, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 4 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 910 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -90 | +90 |
Tony DeSouza slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 100.0% vs 25.0% accuracy. Tony DeSouza capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 3:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 886 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -114 | +114 |
Tony DeSouza dominated Dustin Hazelett on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:39 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 1 838 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +14 |
Tony DeSouza demonstrated extended layoff with 1838 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Tony DeSouza capitalized on this activity level, while Dustin Hazelett's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Tony DeSouza started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dustin Hazelett is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Hazelett | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.