January 14, 2014
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 027 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
John Moraga's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Moraga for the expected result. Had Dustin Ortiz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 067 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with John Moraga receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 43 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 83 | 95 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 75 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 035 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
John Moraga edged the striking exchanges with 43 vs 35 significant strikes. John Moraga capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:10 | 1:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 11 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 1 052 | 997 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
John Moraga did not secure a significant ground advantage against Dustin Ortiz on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:48 of control time, 14 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 67 | 173 |
| Activity ELO | 1 001 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +33 |
John Moraga demonstrated solid activity levels with 173 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, John Moraga capitalized on this activity level, while Dustin Ortiz's 67-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 002 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
John Moraga started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dustin Ortiz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

