Dustin Ortiz vs John Moraga

January 14, 2014

Flyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1023
(-22)
Dustin Ortiz
Winner: John Moraga
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Dustin Ortiz-22
John Moraga+24
1070
(+24)
John Moraga

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Dustin Ortiz: -33John Moraga: +33

Performance Statistics

MetricDustin OrtizJohn Moraga
Total UFC Fights24
Experience Gap-22
Experience ELO1 0271 077
ELO Change-33+33
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What Happened

John Moraga's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Moraga for the expected result. Had Dustin Ortiz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Dustin Ortiz: -20John Moraga: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricDustin OrtizJohn Moraga
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0001 050
ELO Change-20+20
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Dustin Ortiz: -9John Moraga: +9

Performance Statistics

MetricDustin OrtizJohn Moraga
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 0671 122
ELO Change-9+9
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with John Moraga receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Dustin Ortiz: -24John Moraga: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricDustin OrtizJohn Moraga
Significant Strikes Landed3543
Significant Strikes Attempted8395
Total Strikes Landed6075
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0351 117
ELO Change-24+24
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What Happened

John Moraga edged the striking exchanges with 43 vs 35 significant strikes. John Moraga capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Dustin Ortiz: -28John Moraga: +28

Performance Statistics

MetricDustin OrtizJohn Moraga
Takedowns Landed20
Takedowns Attempted102
Ground Control Time7:101:48
Ground Strikes Landed1114
Ground ELO1 052997
ELO Change-28+28
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What Happened

John Moraga did not secure a significant ground advantage against Dustin Ortiz on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:48 of control time, 14 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Dustin Ortiz: -19John Moraga: +33

Performance Statistics

MetricDustin OrtizJohn Moraga
Days Since Last Fight67173
Activity ELO1 0011 093
ELO Change-19+33
💡

What Happened

John Moraga demonstrated solid activity levels with 173 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, John Moraga capitalized on this activity level, while Dustin Ortiz's 67-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Dustin Ortiz: -20John Moraga: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricDustin OrtizJohn Moraga
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0021 056
ELO Change-20+22
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What Happened

John Moraga started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dustin Ortiz is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Dustin Ortiz: -21John Moraga: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricDustin OrtizJohn Moraga
Weight ClassFlyweightFlyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9991 046
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.