January 18, 2019
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 114 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Joseph Benavidez's 3-fight experience advantage (17 vs 14 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joseph Benavidez for the expected result. Had Dustin Ortiz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 054 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 276 | 1 422 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Joseph Benavidez earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 87 | 50 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 93 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 285 | 1 376 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Dustin Ortiz controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (93 vs 37 total strikes), significant strike advantage (49 vs 21), superior accuracy (56.3% vs 42.0%). However, since Dustin Ortiz lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Joseph Benavidez's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 7 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:03 | 6:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 197 | 1 391 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Joseph Benavidez landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 50 |
| Activity ELO | 1 184 | 1 364 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +80 |
Joseph Benavidez demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 50 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Joseph Benavidez capitalized on this activity level, while Dustin Ortiz's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 078 | 1 237 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +16 |
Joseph Benavidez extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dustin Ortiz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 052 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.