August 7, 2015
Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 087 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Dustin Ortiz's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Ortiz for the expected result. Had Willie Gates pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 045 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:58 | 2:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 149 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +85 | -42 |
Dustin Ortiz gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 92 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 129 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 171 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 196 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +92 | -92 |
Dustin Ortiz dominated the striking exchanges with 171 vs 24 total strikes, 92 vs 13 significant strikes, 71.3% vs 40.6% accuracy. Dustin Ortiz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 13 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 73 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 143 | 867 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Dustin Ortiz dominated Willie Gates on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 10:47 of control time, 73 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 259 | 27 |
| Activity ELO | 1 120 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Dustin Ortiz demonstrated standard activity with 259 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Dustin Ortiz capitalized on this activity level, while Willie Gates's 27-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 054 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Dustin Ortiz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Willie Gates is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 044 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.