December 9, 2016
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Zach Makovsky |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 066 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Dustin Ortiz's 2-fight experience advantage (9 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Ortiz for the expected result. Had Zach Makovsky pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Zach Makovsky |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 023 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Zach Makovsky |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 074 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Dustin Ortiz receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Zach Makovsky |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 65 | 44 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 109 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 157 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Dustin Ortiz dominated the striking exchanges with 109 vs 29 total strikes, 34 vs 21 significant strikes. Dustin Ortiz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Zach Makovsky |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:10 | 2:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 129 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +124 | -124 |
Dustin Ortiz dominated Zach Makovsky on the ground with 4 takedowns, 8:10 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Zach Makovsky |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 78 | 308 |
| Activity ELO | 1 133 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -20 |
Dustin Ortiz demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 78 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Dustin Ortiz capitalized on this activity level, while Zach Makovsky's 308-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Zach Makovsky |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 034 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Dustin Ortiz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Zach Makovsky is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Ortiz | Zach Makovsky |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.