July 27, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 13 | -13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 311 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Dustin Poirier's 13-fight experience advantage (21 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Poirier for the expected result. Had Eddie Alvarez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 197 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:05 | 4:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 534 | 1 250 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -18 |
Dustin Poirier gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 54 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 115 | 76 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 76 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 462 | 1 192 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -64 |
Dustin Poirier controlled the striking exchanges with 76 vs 35 total strikes, 54 vs 26 significant strikes, 47.0% vs 34.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Dustin Poirier capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 2:28 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 351 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Dustin Poirier did not secure a significant ground advantage against Eddie Alvarez on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 238 |
| Activity ELO | 1 373 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -10 |
Dustin Poirier demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dustin Poirier capitalized on this activity level, while Eddie Alvarez's 238-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 237 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -14 |
Dustin Poirier extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Eddie Alvarez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 189 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.