August 30, 2013
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Erik Koch |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 098 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Dustin Poirier's 4-fight experience advantage (8 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Poirier for the expected result. Had Erik Koch pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Erik Koch |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 070 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Erik Koch |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 214 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Dustin Poirier earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Erik Koch |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 54 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 92 | 74 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 74 | 50 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 192 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +81 | -81 |
Dustin Poirier dominated the striking exchanges with 74 vs 50 total strikes, 54 vs 32 significant strikes, 58.7% vs 43.2% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Dustin Poirier capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Erik Koch |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:31 | 3:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 22 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 092 | 944 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -53 |
Dustin Poirier controlled Erik Koch on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 7:31 of control time, 22 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Erik Koch |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 196 | 217 |
| Activity ELO | 1 135 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Dustin Poirier demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Dustin Poirier capitalized on this activity level, while Erik Koch's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Erik Koch |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 089 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -19 |
Dustin Poirier started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Erik Koch is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Erik Koch |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 070 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

