January 1, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 197 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Dustin Poirier's 11-fight experience advantage (14 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Poirier for the expected result. Had Joe Duffy pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 134 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 401 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Dustin Poirier earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 72 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 137 | 100 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 88 | 60 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 396 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Dustin Poirier controlled the striking exchanges with 88 vs 60 total strikes, 72 vs 37 significant strikes, 52.6% vs 37.0% accuracy. Dustin Poirier capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 9:23 | 0:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 27 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 289 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Dustin Poirier dominated Joe Duffy on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 9:23 of control time, 27 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 211 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 258 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -11 |
Dustin Poirier demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Dustin Poirier capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Duffy's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 167 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -15 |
Dustin Poirier extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Duffy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 134 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.