April 13, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 17 | -17 |
| Experience ELO | 1 287 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Dustin Poirier's 17-fight experience advantage (20 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Poirier for the expected result. Had Justin Gaethje pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 178 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 4 | 4 |
| Time of Finish | 0:33 | 0:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 498 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -9 |
Dustin Poirier gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 4, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 174 | 115 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 351 | 212 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 179 | 116 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 398 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Dustin Poirier dominated the striking exchanges with 179 vs 116 total strikes, 174 vs 115 significant strikes. Dustin Poirier capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:06 | 1:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 334 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -6 |
Dustin Poirier did not secure a significant ground advantage against Justin Gaethje on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 348 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -6 |
Dustin Poirier demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dustin Poirier capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Gaethje's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 219 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -10 |
Dustin Poirier extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Gaethje is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 174 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.