July 28, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 29 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 17 | -17 |
| Experience ELO | 1 367 | 1 459 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +69 |
Justin Gaethje overcame a 17-fight experience disadvantage (12 vs 29 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Dustin Poirier.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 228 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:00 | 1:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 617 | 1 695 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +106 |
Justin Gaethje gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 52 | 66 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 474 | 1 605 |
| ELO Change | -128 | +128 |
Justin Gaethje controlled the striking exchanges with 41 vs 27 significant strikes, 62.1% vs 51.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Justin Gaethje capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 314 | 1 340 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 259 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 410 | 1 309 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +63 |
Justin Gaethje demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Justin Gaethje capitalized on this activity level, while Dustin Poirier's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 307 | 1 234 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +35 |
Justin Gaethje extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dustin Poirier is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 224 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.