June 3, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 225 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Dustin Poirier's 9-fight experience advantage (15 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Poirier for the expected result. Had King Green pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 151 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:53 | 2:53 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 441 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -18 |
Dustin Poirier earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:53, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 66 | 35 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 463 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | +67 | -67 |
Dustin Poirier dominated the striking exchanges with 36 vs 16 significant strikes, 54.5% vs 45.7% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Dustin Poirier capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:16 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 316 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Dustin Poirier landed 2 knockdowns followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 560 |
| Activity ELO | 1 283 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -14 |
Dustin Poirier demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dustin Poirier capitalized on this activity level, while King Green's 560-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 189 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -16 |
Dustin Poirier extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. King Green is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 151 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

