February 3, 2012
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 107 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Dustin Poirier's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Poirier for the expected result. Had Max Holloway pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 079 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:23 | 3:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 199 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -24 |
Dustin Poirier earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:23, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 25 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 128 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Dustin Poirier slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 44.0% vs 34.4% accuracy. Dustin Poirier capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:29 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 298 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Dustin Poirier dominated Max Holloway on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:29 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 140 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -16 |
Dustin Poirier demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Dustin Poirier capitalized on this activity level, while Max Holloway's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 097 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -17 |
Dustin Poirier extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Max Holloway is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 079 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.