November 11, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 28 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 23 | -23 |
| Experience ELO | 1 399 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Dustin Poirier's 23-fight experience advantage (28 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Poirier for the expected result. Had Michael Chandler pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 256 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:00 | 2:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 669 | 1 302 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -10 |
Dustin Poirier earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:00, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Michael Chandler was submitted.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 38 | 43 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 76 | 100 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 63 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 602 | 1 277 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -6 |
Michael Chandler controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (43 vs 38). However, since Michael Chandler lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Dustin Poirier's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:47 | 5:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 16 |
| Ground ELO | 1 383 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Dustin Poirier edged out Michael Chandler on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:47 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 336 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 442 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | +5 | -5 |
Dustin Poirier demonstrated standard activity with 336 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Dustin Poirier capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Chandler's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 336 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -7 |
Dustin Poirier started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Chandler is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 253 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.