September 16, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 185 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +46 |
Michael Johnson overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (14 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Dustin Poirier.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 123 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:35 | 1:35 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 380 | 1 418 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +146 |
Michael Johnson earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:35, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 37 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 294 | 1 403 |
| ELO Change | -169 | +169 |
Michael Johnson controlled the striking exchanges with 14 vs 6 significant strikes, 37.8% vs 50.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Michael Johnson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 235 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -81 | +81 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 273 |
| Activity ELO | 1 257 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Michael Johnson demonstrated standard activity with 273 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Michael Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Dustin Poirier's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 161 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +30 |
Michael Johnson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dustin Poirier is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Poirier | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 123 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

