December 17, 2021
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 926 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Gerald Meerschaert's 12-fight experience advantage (15 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gerald Meerschaert for the expected result. Had Dustin Stoltzfus pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 943 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:58 | 2:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 918 | 1 292 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +15 |
Gerald Meerschaert earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:58, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Dustin Stoltzfus was submitted.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 32 | 22 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 925 | 992 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Dustin Stoltzfus controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (51 vs 19 total strikes), superior accuracy (37.5% vs 50.0%). However, since Dustin Stoltzfus lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gerald Meerschaert's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:27 | 3:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 864 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Gerald Meerschaert controlled Dustin Stoltzfus on the ground with 1 takedown, 3:14 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | 113 |
| Activity ELO | 949 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +26 |
Gerald Meerschaert demonstrated solid activity levels with 113 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gerald Meerschaert capitalized on this activity level, while Dustin Stoltzfus's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 945 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +20 |
Gerald Meerschaert extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dustin Stoltzfus is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 943 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

