September 13, 2025
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 25 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 950 | 1 212 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Kelvin Gastelum's 15-fight experience advantage (25 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kelvin Gastelum for the expected result. Had Dustin Stoltzfus pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 946 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 088 | 1 362 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Kelvin Gastelum earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 64 | 57 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 146 | 117 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 69 | 58 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 960 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Dustin Stoltzfus controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (64 vs 57). However, since Dustin Stoltzfus lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Kelvin Gastelum's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:00 | 0:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 016 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Kelvin Gastelum did not secure a significant ground advantage against Dustin Stoltzfus on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:23 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 001 | 1 268 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +21 |
Kelvin Gastelum demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this activity level, while Dustin Stoltzfus's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 959 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +13 |
Kelvin Gastelum started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dustin Stoltzfus is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 945 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

