July 16, 2021
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 944 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Rodolfo Vieira's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rodolfo Vieira for the expected result. Had Dustin Stoltzfus pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:54 | 1:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 928 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +41 |
Rodolfo Vieira earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:54, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Dustin Stoltzfus was submitted.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 67 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 192 | 88 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 83 | 52 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 944 | 989 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Dustin Stoltzfus controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (83 vs 52 total strikes), significant strike advantage (67 vs 49), superior accuracy (34.9% vs 55.7%). However, since Dustin Stoltzfus lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rodolfo Vieira's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:09 | 2:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 883 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Rodolfo Vieira dominated Dustin Stoltzfus on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 2:10 of control time, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 238 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 960 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +32 |
Rodolfo Vieira demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rodolfo Vieira capitalized on this activity level, while Dustin Stoltzfus's 238-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 960 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Rodolfo Vieira started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dustin Stoltzfus is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dustin Stoltzfus | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

