October 22, 2021
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 24 |
| Experience Gap | -18 | 18 |
| Experience ELO | 1 062 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Francisco Trinaldo's 18-fight experience advantage (24 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Francisco Trinaldo for the expected result. Had Dwight Grant pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 011 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 067 | 1 325 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +4 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Francisco Trinaldo receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 133 | 70 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 41 | 61 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 981 | 1 228 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
Francisco Trinaldo edged the striking exchanges with 61 vs 41 total strikes, 36 vs 31 significant strikes, 51.4% vs 23.3% accuracy. Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:11 | 4:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 003 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Francisco Trinaldo edged out Dwight Grant on the ground with 1 takedown, 4:45 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 162 | 1 356 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +24 |
Francisco Trinaldo demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this activity level, while Dwight Grant's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 025 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +13 |
Francisco Trinaldo started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dwight Grant is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 011 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

