December 14, 2018
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 976 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Zak Ottow's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Zak Ottow for the expected result. Had Dwight Grant pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 992 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Zak Ottow receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 84 | 71 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 22 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 977 | 988 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Dwight Grant controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (25 vs 14), superior accuracy (29.8% vs 19.7%). However, since Dwight Grant lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Zak Ottow's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:20 | 2:54 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 967 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Zak Ottow edged out Dwight Grant on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:54 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 983 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +29 |
Zak Ottow demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Zak Ottow capitalized on this activity level, while Dwight Grant's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Zak Ottow started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dwight Grant is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dwight Grant | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

