October 9, 2006
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ed Herman | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 918 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:43 | 2:43 |
| Win Type ELO | 921 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +65 |
Jason MacDonald earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:43, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 934 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Jason MacDonald slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 71.4% vs 100.0% accuracy. Jason MacDonald capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:18 | 0:57 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 928 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
Jason MacDonald controlled Ed Herman on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:57 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 108 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 959 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Jason MacDonald demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Jason MacDonald capitalized on this activity level, while Ed Herman's 108-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 959 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Jason MacDonald started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ed Herman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.