August 13, 2011
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ed Herman | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 052 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Ed Herman's 7-fight experience advantage (11 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ed Herman for the expected result. Had Kyle Noke pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 032 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:15 | 4:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 290 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -40 |
Ed Herman earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:15, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 6 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 179 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Kyle Noke controlled the striking through superior volume (19 vs 4 total strikes), significant strike advantage (12 vs 2), superior accuracy (92.3% vs 33.3%). However, since Kyle Noke lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Ed Herman's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:12 | 3:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 192 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -75 |
Ed Herman controlled Kyle Noke on the ground with 1 takedown, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 71 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 139 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | +71 | -24 |
Ed Herman demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 71 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Ed Herman capitalized on this activity level, while Kyle Noke's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -24 |
Ed Herman extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kyle Noke is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 032 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

