September 11, 2020
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ed Herman | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 24 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 18 | -18 |
| Experience ELO | 1 094 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Ed Herman's 18-fight experience advantage (24 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ed Herman for the expected result. Had Mike Rodriguez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 058 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:41 | 2:41 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 317 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -22 |
Ed Herman earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:41, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mike Rodriguez was submitted.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 89 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 73 | 124 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 114 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 111 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Mike Rodriguez controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (114 vs 51 total strikes), significant strike advantage (89 vs 40), superior accuracy (71.8% vs 54.8%), 2 knockdowns. However, since Mike Rodriguez lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Ed Herman's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:09 | 3:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 132 | 918 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Ed Herman controlled Mike Rodriguez on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:09 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 308 | 21 |
| Activity ELO | 1 174 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Ed Herman demonstrated standard activity with 308 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Ed Herman capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Rodriguez's 21-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 093 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -17 |
Ed Herman extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Rodriguez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 058 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

