May 17, 2019
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ed Herman | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 042 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Ed Herman's 9-fight experience advantage (22 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ed Herman for the expected result. Had Patrick Cummins pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:39 | 3:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 272 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | +70 | -32 |
Ed Herman earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:39, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 35 | 33 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 22 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 066 | 898 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -84 |
Patrick Cummins controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (22 vs 11), superior accuracy (66.7% vs 31.4%). However, since Patrick Cummins lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Ed Herman's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:04 | 0:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 066 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 203 | 203 |
| Activity ELO | 1 140 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -23 |
Ed Herman demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ed Herman capitalized on this activity level, while Patrick Cummins's 203-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Ed Herman started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Patrick Cummins is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

