May 9, 2014
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ed Herman | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 103 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Ed Herman's 6-fight experience advantage (16 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ed Herman for the expected result. Had Rafael Natal pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 069 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 288 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Ed Herman earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 51 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 87 | 73 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 78 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 203 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Ed Herman controlled the striking exchanges with 51 vs 35 significant strikes, 58.6% vs 47.9% accuracy. Ed Herman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:58 | 4:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 196 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Ed Herman did not secure a significant ground advantage against Rafael Natal on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:58 of control time, 6 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 175 | 185 |
| Activity ELO | 1 185 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -18 |
Ed Herman demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ed Herman capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Natal's 185-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 095 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Ed Herman started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Natal is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 069 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

