Ed Herman vs Rafael Natal

May 9, 2014

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1151
(+24)
Ed Herman
Winner: Ed Herman
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Ed Herman+24
Rafael Natal-23
1058
(-23)
Rafael Natal

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Ed Herman: +30Rafael Natal: -30

Performance Statistics

MetricEd HermanRafael Natal
Total UFC Fights1610
Experience Gap6-6
Experience ELO1 1031 028
ELO Change+30-30
💡

What Happened

Ed Herman's 6-fight experience advantage (16 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ed Herman for the expected result. Had Rafael Natal pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Ed Herman: +20Rafael Natal: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricEd HermanRafael Natal
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0691 020
ELO Change+20-20
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Ed Herman: +23Rafael Natal: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricEd HermanRafael Natal
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 2881 068
ELO Change+23-23
💡

What Happened

Ed Herman earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Ed Herman: +19Rafael Natal: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricEd HermanRafael Natal
Significant Strikes Landed5135
Significant Strikes Attempted8773
Total Strikes Landed7871
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 2031 053
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

Ed Herman controlled the striking exchanges with 51 vs 35 significant strikes, 58.6% vs 47.9% accuracy. Ed Herman capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Ed Herman: +29Rafael Natal: -29

Performance Statistics

MetricEd HermanRafael Natal
Takedowns Landed11
Takedowns Attempted46
Ground Control Time2:584:46
Ground Strikes Landed68
Ground ELO1 1961 158
ELO Change+29-29
💡

What Happened

Ed Herman did not secure a significant ground advantage against Rafael Natal on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:58 of control time, 6 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Ed Herman: +31Rafael Natal: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricEd HermanRafael Natal
Days Since Last Fight175185
Activity ELO1 1851 083
ELO Change+31-18
💡

What Happened

Ed Herman demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ed Herman capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Natal's 185-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Ed Herman: +22Rafael Natal: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricEd HermanRafael Natal
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 0951 036
ELO Change+22-20
💡

What Happened

Ed Herman started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Natal is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Ed Herman: +21Rafael Natal: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricEd HermanRafael Natal
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0691 019
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.