July 26, 2013
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ed Herman | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 13 | -13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 105 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Ed Herman's 13-fight experience advantage (14 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ed Herman for the expected result. Had Trevor Smith pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 070 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 318 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +3 | -3 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Ed Herman receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 73 | 87 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 129 | 108 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 127 | 112 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 211 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
Trevor Smith controlled the striking through superior volume (112 vs 127 total strikes), significant strike advantage (87 vs 73), superior accuracy (80.6% vs 56.6%). However, since Trevor Smith lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Ed Herman's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:18 | 3:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 253 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Ed Herman edged out Trevor Smith on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 3:18 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 350 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 176 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Ed Herman demonstrated standard activity with 350 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Ed Herman capitalized on this activity level, while Trevor Smith's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 094 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -16 |
Ed Herman started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Trevor Smith is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ed Herman | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 070 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

