June 12, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 034 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -39 |
Eddie Alvarez overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Gilbert Melendez.
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 010 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 008 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Eddie Alvarez receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 64 | 129 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 93 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 014 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Gilbert Melendez controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (93 vs 43 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (37 vs 31), superior accuracy (28.7% vs 48.4%). However, since Gilbert Melendez lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Eddie Alvarez's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:47 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 050 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Eddie Alvarez edged out Gilbert Melendez on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 3:47 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 259 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 026 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -23 |
Eddie Alvarez demonstrated standard activity with 259 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Eddie Alvarez capitalized on this activity level, while Gilbert Melendez's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 014 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Eddie Alvarez started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gilbert Melendez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 010 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

