December 1, 2017
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 208 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Eddie Alvarez's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Eddie Alvarez for the expected result. Had Justin Gaethje pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 141 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:59 | 3:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 268 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -37 |
Eddie Alvarez gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 155 | 122 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 356 | 237 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 162 | 124 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 256 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +67 | -67 |
Eddie Alvarez controlled the striking exchanges with 162 vs 124 total strikes, 155 vs 122 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Eddie Alvarez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:20 | 0:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 274 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 149 |
| Activity ELO | 1 142 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Eddie Alvarez demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Eddie Alvarez capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Gaethje's 149-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 101 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Eddie Alvarez started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Gaethje is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Eddie Alvarez | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 069 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.