February 19, 2021
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Eddie Wineland | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 13 | -13 |
| Experience ELO | 998 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +68 |
John Castaneda overcame a 13-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Eddie Wineland.
| Metric | Eddie Wineland | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 974 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Eddie Wineland | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:44 | 4:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 094 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +133 |
John Castaneda earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:44, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Eddie Wineland | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 66 | 57 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 44 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 958 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -151 | +151 |
John Castaneda controlled the striking exchanges with 44 vs 17 total strikes, 42 vs 17 significant strikes, 73.7% vs 25.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. John Castaneda capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Eddie Wineland | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:12 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 059 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
John Castaneda landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Eddie Wineland | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 260 | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 1 035 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +32 |
John Castaneda demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, John Castaneda capitalized on this activity level, while Eddie Wineland's 260-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Eddie Wineland | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 992 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
John Castaneda started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Eddie Wineland is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Eddie Wineland | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 973 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.