September 18, 2007
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Edilberto de Oliveira | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 952 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Luke Cummo's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Luke Cummo for the expected result. Had Edilberto de Oliveira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Edilberto de Oliveira | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Edilberto de Oliveira | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:45 | 1:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 929 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +70 |
Luke Cummo earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:45, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Edilberto de Oliveira | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 19 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 849 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Luke Cummo controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Luke Cummo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Edilberto de Oliveira | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 893 | 986 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Edilberto de Oliveira | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 151 | 165 |
| Activity ELO | 960 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +33 |
Luke Cummo demonstrated solid activity levels with 165 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Luke Cummo capitalized on this activity level, while Edilberto de Oliveira's 151-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Edilberto de Oliveira | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 960 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Luke Cummo extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Edilberto de Oliveira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Edilberto de Oliveira | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

