January 13, 2012
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ednaldo Oliveira | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 973 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Gabriel Gonzaga's 12-fight experience advantage (13 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gabriel Gonzaga for the expected result. Had Ednaldo Oliveira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ednaldo Oliveira | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ednaldo Oliveira | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:22 | 3:22 |
| Win Type ELO | 977 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +38 |
Gabriel Gonzaga earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:22, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Ednaldo Oliveira | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 14 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 953 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 2 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Ednaldo Oliveira | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 908 | 1 208 |
| ELO Change | -92 | +92 |
Gabriel Gonzaga dominated Ednaldo Oliveira on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:21 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ednaldo Oliveira | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 449 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +14 |
Gabriel Gonzaga demonstrated extended layoff with 449 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Gabriel Gonzaga capitalized on this activity level, while Ednaldo Oliveira's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ednaldo Oliveira | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Gabriel Gonzaga started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ednaldo Oliveira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ednaldo Oliveira | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

