Edson Barboza vs Justin Gaethje

March 29, 2019

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1206
(-49)
Edson Barboza
Winner: Justin Gaethje
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 2:30

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Edson Barboza-49
Justin Gaethje+67
1175
(+67)
Justin Gaethje

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: -38Justin Gaethje: +79

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaJustin Gaethje
Total UFC Fights215
Experience Gap16-16
Experience ELO1 1931 236
ELO Change-38+79
💡

What Happened

Justin Gaethje overcame a 16-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 21 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Edson Barboza.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: -27Justin Gaethje: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaJustin Gaethje
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1071 054
ELO Change-27+27
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: -62Justin Gaethje: +139

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaJustin Gaethje
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish2:302:30
Win Type ELO1 3991 422
ELO Change-62+139
💡

What Happened

Justin Gaethje earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: -154Justin Gaethje: +154

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaJustin Gaethje
Significant Strikes Landed1320
Significant Strikes Attempted3235
Total Strikes Landed1322
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 2411 316
ELO Change-154+154
💡

What Happened

Justin Gaethje controlled the striking exchanges with 20 vs 13 significant strikes, 57.1% vs 40.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Justin Gaethje capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: -29Justin Gaethje: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaJustin Gaethje
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:000:44
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 1651 126
ELO Change-29+29
💡

What Happened

Justin Gaethje did not secure a significant ground advantage against Edson Barboza on the ground with 0:44 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: -33Justin Gaethje: +42

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaJustin Gaethje
Days Since Last Fight105218
Activity ELO1 2831 123
ELO Change-33+42
💡

What Happened

Justin Gaethje demonstrated standard activity with 218 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Justin Gaethje capitalized on this activity level, while Edson Barboza's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: -29Justin Gaethje: +35

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaJustin Gaethje
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO1 1531 071
ELO Change-29+35
💡

What Happened

Justin Gaethje extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Edson Barboza is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: -27Justin Gaethje: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaJustin Gaethje
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1031 050
ELO Change-27+27
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.