March 29, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 16 | -16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 193 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +79 |
Justin Gaethje overcame a 16-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 21 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Edson Barboza.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 107 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:30 | 2:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 399 | 1 422 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +139 |
Justin Gaethje earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 32 | 35 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 22 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 241 | 1 316 |
| ELO Change | -154 | +154 |
Justin Gaethje controlled the striking exchanges with 20 vs 13 significant strikes, 57.1% vs 40.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Justin Gaethje capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 165 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Justin Gaethje did not secure a significant ground advantage against Edson Barboza on the ground with 0:44 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 218 |
| Activity ELO | 1 283 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +42 |
Justin Gaethje demonstrated standard activity with 218 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Justin Gaethje capitalized on this activity level, while Edson Barboza's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 153 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +35 |
Justin Gaethje extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Edson Barboza is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 103 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

