November 21, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Edson Barboza | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 214 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Edson Barboza's 6-fight experience advantage (11 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Edson Barboza for the expected result. Had King Green pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 127 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 332 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Edson Barboza earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 54 | 50 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 133 | 123 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 54 | 50 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 300 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Edson Barboza slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Edson Barboza capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 195 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 130 | 120 |
| Activity ELO | 1 284 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -15 |
Edson Barboza demonstrated solid activity levels with 130 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Edson Barboza capitalized on this activity level, while King Green's 120-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 162 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Edson Barboza extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. King Green is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 127 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

