January 18, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 119 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Edson Barboza's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Edson Barboza for the expected result. Had Lucas Martins pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 076 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:38 | 2:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 221 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -23 |
Edson Barboza earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:38, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 45 | 31 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 181 | 925 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -75 |
Edson Barboza controlled the striking exchanges with 26 vs 12 significant strikes, 57.8% vs 38.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Edson Barboza capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:10 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 086 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Edson Barboza landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 145 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -14 |
Edson Barboza demonstrated standard activity with 239 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Edson Barboza capitalized on this activity level, while Lucas Martins's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 097 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -16 |
Edson Barboza started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lucas Martins is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 076 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

