Edson Barboza vs Lucas Martins

January 18, 2013

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1125
(+33)
Edson Barboza
Winner: Edson Barboza
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 2:38

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Edson Barboza+33
Lucas Martins-29
971
(-29)
Lucas Martins

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: +23Lucas Martins: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaLucas Martins
Total UFC Fights61
Experience Gap5-5
Experience ELO1 119977
ELO Change+23-23
💡

What Happened

Edson Barboza's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Edson Barboza for the expected result. Had Lucas Martins pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: +18Lucas Martins: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaLucas Martins
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 076982
ELO Change+18-18
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: +52Lucas Martins: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaLucas Martins
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish2:382:38
Win Type ELO1 221977
ELO Change+52-23
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What Happened

Edson Barboza earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:38, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: +75Lucas Martins: -75

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaLucas Martins
Significant Strikes Landed2612
Significant Strikes Attempted4531
Total Strikes Landed2912
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 181925
ELO Change+75-75
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What Happened

Edson Barboza controlled the striking exchanges with 26 vs 12 significant strikes, 57.8% vs 38.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Edson Barboza capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: +47Lucas Martins: -47

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaLucas Martins
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:100:00
Ground Strikes Landed60
Ground ELO1 086953
ELO Change+47-47
💡

What Happened

Edson Barboza landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: +17Lucas Martins: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaLucas Martins
Days Since Last Fight239N/A
Activity ELO1 145986
ELO Change+17-14
💡

What Happened

Edson Barboza demonstrated standard activity with 239 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Edson Barboza capitalized on this activity level, while Lucas Martins's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: +18Lucas Martins: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaLucas Martins
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 097984
ELO Change+18-16
💡

What Happened

Edson Barboza started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lucas Martins is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Edson Barboza: +18Lucas Martins: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricEdson BarbozaLucas Martins
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 076982
ELO Change+18-18
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.