July 5, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 138 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -13 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (7 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 091 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:44 | 1:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 256 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -17 |
Edson Barboza gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 89 | 42 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 49 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 228 | 909 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Edson Barboza controlled the striking exchanges with 49 vs 19 total strikes, 49 vs 19 significant strikes, 55.1% vs 45.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Edson Barboza capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:13 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 104 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 364 |
| Activity ELO | 1 168 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -13 |
Edson Barboza demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Edson Barboza capitalized on this activity level, while Rafaello Oliveira's 364-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 114 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -14 |
Edson Barboza extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafaello Oliveira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 091 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

