December 10, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 179 | 1 308 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +30 |
Tony Ferguson overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Edson Barboza.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 101 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:54 | 2:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 276 | 1 435 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +51 |
Tony Ferguson earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:54, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Edson Barboza was submitted.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 41 | 61 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 85 | 116 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 45 | 69 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 264 | 1 392 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Tony Ferguson controlled the striking exchanges with 69 vs 45 total strikes, 61 vs 41 significant strikes. Tony Ferguson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:57 | 0:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 1 116 | 1 441 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Tony Ferguson edged out Edson Barboza on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:21 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 150 |
| Activity ELO | 1 262 | 1 383 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +29 |
Tony Ferguson demonstrated solid activity levels with 150 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tony Ferguson capitalized on this activity level, while Edson Barboza's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 7 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 137 | 1 267 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +50 |
Tony Ferguson continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Edson Barboza's now at 0.
| Metric | Edson Barboza | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 101 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.