December 9, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Elias Theodorou | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 047 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Thiago Santos's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Santos for the expected result. Had Elias Theodorou pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Elias Theodorou | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 037 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Elias Theodorou | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 129 | 1 245 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Thiago Santos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Elias Theodorou | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 52 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 94 | 81 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 83 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 149 | 1 292 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Thiago Santos controlled the striking exchanges with 83 vs 40 total strikes, 52 vs 28 significant strikes, 64.2% vs 29.8% accuracy. Thiago Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Elias Theodorou | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 13 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:49 | 0:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 105 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | -78 | +78 |
Thiago Santos controlled Elias Theodorou on the ground with 1 takedown, 0:53 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Elias Theodorou | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 271 | 167 |
| Activity ELO | 1 067 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +40 |
Thiago Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 167 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Elias Theodorou's 271-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Elias Theodorou | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 048 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +30 |
Thiago Santos extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Elias Theodorou is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Elias Theodorou | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 037 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.