September 9, 2022
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Elise Reed | Melissa Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 009 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Elise Reed's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Elise Reed for the expected result. Had Melissa Martinez pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Elise Reed | Melissa Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Elise Reed | Melissa Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 977 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -51 |
Elise Reed earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Elise Reed | Melissa Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 38 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 70 | 78 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 65 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 936 | 927 |
| ELO Change | +73 | -73 |
Elise Reed controlled the striking exchanges with 38 vs 45 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Elise Reed capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Elise Reed | Melissa Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:34 | 2:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 947 | 923 |
| ELO Change | +77 | -77 |
Elise Reed landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Elise Reed | Melissa Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 042 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -22 |
Elise Reed demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Elise Reed capitalized on this activity level, while Melissa Martinez's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Elise Reed | Melissa Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 007 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Elise Reed started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melissa Martinez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Elise Reed | Melissa Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.