May 20, 2022
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Elise Reed | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 975 | 998 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Sam Hughes's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sam Hughes for the expected result. Had Elise Reed pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Elise Reed | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 990 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Elise Reed | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:52 | 3:52 |
| Win Type ELO | 926 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +95 |
Sam Hughes gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Elise Reed | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 43 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 41 | 65 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 70 | 130 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 863 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +74 |
Sam Hughes dominated the striking exchanges with 130 vs 70 total strikes, 43 vs 17 significant strikes, 66.2% vs 41.5% accuracy. Sam Hughes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Elise Reed | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 11:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 30 |
| Ground ELO | 870 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -109 | +109 |
Sam Hughes dominated Elise Reed on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 11:59 of control time, 30 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Elise Reed | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 63 | 35 |
| Activity ELO | 988 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +110 |
Sam Hughes demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 35 days since her last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Sam Hughes capitalized on this activity level, while Elise Reed's 63-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Elise Reed | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 999 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +28 |
Sam Hughes extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Elise Reed is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Elise Reed | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 990 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.