September 30, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 064 | 954 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -27 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 7 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Keita Nakamura.
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 023 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 156 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 120 | 58 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 45 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 093 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Keita Nakamura controlled the striking through superior volume (64 vs 45 total strikes), significant strike advantage (24 vs 34), superior accuracy (41.4% vs 28.3%). However, since Keita Nakamura lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:16 | 7:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 998 | 937 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos did not secure a significant ground advantage against Keita Nakamura on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:16 of control time, 4 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 80 |
| Activity ELO | 1 042 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -21 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Keita Nakamura's 80-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 030 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Keita Nakamura is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

